Steven Jackson has been a pleasant surprise for the St. Louis Rams. The team was looking to replace Marshall Faulk. They got the opportunity in the 2004 draft with the selection of Jackson 24th overall.
Since then, he has been nothing short of outstanding. Jackson missed 4 games last season. He has posted immensely impressive numbers in spite of the wear and tear his body has been taking with the amount of touches he gets. Over 3,500 yards rushing, 26 rushing TDs, 171 receptions, 1,375 receiving yards. All on over 1,000 touches.
Only coming off his rookie contract at the end of the 2008 season, Jackson seems poised to stay healthy and post hearty numbers to earn a new contract. Recent backs of his caliber of have received guaranteed money anywhere from $19 million (KC-Larry Johnson) to $21+ million (SD-Ladainian Tomlinson).
And Jackson is no different. He expects to get paid.
"I think I've been a good person on and off the field, so I expect to be rewarded. It's been a pretty big offseason around here, with the coaching changes and Ms. Georgia (Frontiere) passing," Jackson said. "I'm pretty sure that we'll get something done. This is definitely where I want to be."
But is it worth it? Larry Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson are two examples of running backs that were given a big contract. Their current situations couldn't be more different from each other.
Larry Johnson signed his contract after holding out prior to the 2007 season. LJ was coming off a year in which he rushed the ball 416 times, an NFL record. The Curse of 370 suggests that any player that carries the ball more than 370 times in one season will suffer a major injury, or somehow be ineffective, the following year (except for Eric Dickerson). LJ hit this curse in the 2007 season, the first in his new contact.
At this point, does signing Larry Johnson to a long-term deal seem to be a mistake? Yes. LJ is inching towards 30 years old, known in football circles as the death of running backs.
LaDainian Tomlinson has proved to be worth every penny of his $30+ million guaranteed money. He has regularly carried the ball 330+ times, including another 50+ touches in receptions. In fact, the last 2 years he has led the league in rushing. This all coming when he will turn 29 before training camp. He, like Eric Dickerson, doesn't have any signs of slowing down and is certainly the exception, not the rule.
At this point in Tomlinson's career, a contract only worth $60 million over 6 years is a bargain.
So, do the Rams believe Jackson will become the next LJ or LT?
Now, what we say next might burn us later, but we're going to go ahead and say it. Trade Steven Jackson while you still have only a minimal amount of money ($7 million over 5 years) invested in him. History suggests he will break down if he continues his current trend.
Teams must remember that they took the risk in drafting the player. They gave him millions of dollars without playing a down in the NFL. They don't owe the player anything. The players have been paid for services rendered. It's important not to get emotionally attached to a player.
Jackson has been a workhorse for the team and expects to be rewarded. But is the team going to reward him for the work he's done in the past or for the work he (despite history) will do in the future?